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December Forecast: A Slow Start to Winter

United States ÃÛÌÒÁµÈË Outlook

• Most of the U.S. has average to above-average temperatures, so many people are looking at a mild month. The exception is the eastern Carolinas through Florida and Alaska, which will be below normal.
• December precipitation will be above normal in the Great Lakes, Tennessee Valley, Texas–Oklahoma, and the northern Pacific Northwest; elsewhere, precipitation will be near to below normal.

Canadian ÃÛÌÒÁµÈË Outlook

• December temperatures will also be milder. We predict warmer-than-average temperatures in Southern Ontario, the eastern Prairies, southern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories, and near to below normal elsewhere. 
• December precipitation will be near to below normal from western Atlantic Canada into southeastern Quebec, southeastern British Columbia, and across the Yukon; elsewhere, it will be above normal.

→&²Ô²ú²õ±è;See YOUR region’s forecast with weekly weather condition summaries.

December Holiday ÃÛÌÒÁµÈË

United States ÃÛÌÒÁµÈË Summary: Let’s start with the weekend before Christmas week when many students start their winter break. Saturday, December 21, is the winter solstice, marking the longest night and shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere. 

• Temperatures will be warmer than normal across much of the United States east of the Rockies and near to below normal elsewhere. 
• Cloudy skies and rainy periods will prevent much sunshine from reaching the southern Appalachians and the Southeast through Florida, across the Tennessee Valley, eastern Heartland, Texas–Oklahoma, and over Hawaii. 
• Expect snow across the southern Plains and much of Alaska. Elsewhere, it will be dry with bright skies. 

U.S. Holiday Travel ÃÛÌÒÁµÈË Maps (December 24 through 29)

Click here to enlarge the map below.

This year, Christmas and the start of Chanukah fall in the same week!

• Expect below-average temps from the mid-Atlantic states across the Southeast and Florida, from the Ohio Valley through the Heartland and the southern Plains, and throughout the Desert Southwest. It will turn very cold across Alaska. In other areas, temperatures will be milder than average. 
• Showers can impact travel and festivities over the southern Appalachians and Southeast, the Tennessee Valley and Texas–Oklahoma, and much of the Rockies through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. 
• Snow can lead to a white Christmas from the Heartland into the southern High Plains, while a snowstorm can slow travel across Alaska. Elsewhere, it will be sunny and dry for holiday travel. 

→&²Ô²ú²õ±è;Read our White Christmas Forecast… Will it snow on Christmas?

For those attending New Year’s Eve celebrations followed by New Year’s Day festivities: 

• Expect periods of snow in New York City and then flurries and a cold wind. 
• In Atlanta, a few showers in the evening will transform into cool and rainy conditions. 
• Look for a clear and chilly evening in Miami and, later, sunshine and a warmup.
• Nashville will experience mild weather with showers, while New Orleans will experience a dry evening followed by showers on New Year’s Day. 
• In Chicago, periods of snow in the evening will be followed by rain and warmer temperatures. 
• In Las Vegas and Los Angeles, it will be warm and dry in the evening, but periods of rain will occur on New Year’s Day.
• Across Seattle, it will be cold with rain and snow.

Canadian ÃÛÌÒÁµÈË Summary: For the winter solstice (Saturday, December 21), Expect clear skies and mild temperatures in southern Quebec, southern Ontario, and the Prairies. Atlantic Canada and southern British Columbia will see rain and/or snow with near-to-above–normal temperatures. Rain and/or snow with colder conditions is forecasted for the Yukon. 

Click to enlarge the map below.

For Christmas and the holidays, colder-than-normal temperatures are anticipated from Atlantic Canada into southern Quebec, plus very cold temperatures across the Yukon; in other regions, it will be milder than normal. Expect rain and/or snow showers over eastern Atlantic Canada and southern British Columbia. Heavy snow and a good chance of a white Christmas are expected across the western Prairies and the Yukon. Elsewhere, it will be clear and dry.

ÃÛÌÒÁµÈË and Climate Patterns

Important factors in the upcoming winter include a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to a weak La Niña. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) will be in a positive or warm phase, and the will be in a neutral to negative phase. Oscillations are linked to ocean-atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years. 

We are also monitoring solar activity, as there is a relationship between solar energy and the stratospheric winds near the equator (known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO). Under certain combinations, the polar vortex can be displaced from the North Pole, which can open the door for cold shots across the central and eastern United States and southern Canada this upcoming winter.

→&²Ô²ú²õ±è;See our full 2024-2025 Winter Forecast Summary!

Don’t forget to order your copy of —a perfect stocking stuffer!