Here’s the news – La Niñ²¹, that cool pool of water in the Tropical Pacific, is back.
It’s baaaack! La Niñ²¹ has returned to the Pacific. Source: NOAA
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Here’s the question: Is that good or bad news?
Here’s the answer: It’s good news for the East Coast and not for Texas. It’s great news for a mellow autumn and rough news for mid-winter cold. It’s good news for retailers and ski resorts, it’s bad news for Christmas air travel. In short, it is a mixed bag of weather.
In the second week of September, the water in the Tropical Pacific became 0.9ËšF (0.5ËšC) colder than normal. This was low enough that the US weather service officially announced that a new La Niñ²¹ had begun. Over a million square miles of ocean water were cooling the air above it, making the air dry and cold. This changed the air pressure, which changes wind patterns and weather. When such a huge amount of air is changed, it changes weather all around the globe.
Some of the weather changes were great. In general, La Niñ²¹s produce warmer and drier autumns, allowing some of those Midwestern crops that were planted late during the spring floods enough time to ripen. This will help the price of food. Unfortunately, the La Nina will also dry conditions in Texas, which could really use some rain.
La Niñ²¹ also tend to shift the wind and air pressure patterns that steer Atlantic hurricanes. Since the event began in September, hurricanes have been shooting up the Atlantic Ocean, rather than skimming the East Coast, like Hurricane Irene. Storms in the Caribbean have gone due east rather than veering north into the Gulf Coast, like Tropical Storm Lee.
La Niñ²¹s frequently create global wind patterns that tend to steer Atlantic hurricanes away from US shores. Source: NOAA
La Niñ²¹s also tend to better the odds for cool, snowy mid-winters. This may make Christmas air traffic a mess, but it is the answer to skier’s prayers. This tends to increase midwinter clothing sales, a gift to retailers. And it provides a pretty, white Christmas.
Just remember this Christmas, as you watch the snowflakes fall—it all started with some cool water in the middle of the vast Pacific.
James J. Garriss
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an earlier replay about the polar air mass starting to let go and colder temperatures for the northeast doesn't appear to be happening. So far this winter temperatures we have had several days of mild temperatures of 50's and 60's. Does it still look like a colder and snowier winter her in the northeast. Mid-coastal Maine in particular
Hi,
So in the San Francisco Bay area does that mean we're in for a mild winter? Since the water is cooler and the air a bit cooler? Last year was pretty wet, but I thought it was an el nino year.
Will we have an unusually cold/snowy winter in the Dayton, Ohio/Ohio Valley this year?
Yes. Think of last year and get out the coast and sweaters.
Yes. Think of last year and get out the coast and sweaters.
We have a cattle ranch and it has been very dry.Do we have any good news regarding some good rains either in the fall, winter and/or spring? We have already sold half our herd to help save on our dry feed now.
I am a New Mexican like you and my husband teaches a lot of rancher kids. I really wish I could say we will have a wet winter. Unfortunately, with a La Nina, we typically have below average rain and snow. We are looking at a climate time like the 1950s.
Hello, I am reading the book about the Betty & Barney Hill abduction. We love the White Mountains. Is there a site to find out what the weather was the night of Sept 19-20th 1961 in the Franconia Notch area? Very interested. Any help would be appreciated, thanks
I live in a flood prone part of North West Washington State. Can you tell me what kind of weather should I expect this winter?
A lot of the climate factors that were in place this time last year are back in place now. This winter has the potential to have some of the same problems that you saw last winter.
