I promised several readers last week that I would write about winter.
There is nothing like a heat wave to make you dream of crisp cool winter days and quiet drifts of snow. (Ok, Californians, I know you dream of 72˚ weather and enough rain that you don’t have to water the still blossoming garden.)
If, as most climate experts expect, we have an El Niño, winter might be a bit weird.
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Click to expand. Satellite pictures show how El Niños develop. SOURCE: NOAA.
Basically, an El Niño (Spanish for “Little Boy) occurs when the Tropical Pacific is unusually warm, more than 0.5˚C or 0.9˚F hotter than average. It heats the air above it, which allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Air pressure changes and that changes wind patterns. The unusual warmth lasts for months. Since the warm area is hundreds of thousands of square miles in size, it usually changes weather around the Pacific Rim and throughout the tropics.
El Niños move. The warmer water drifts east, while new warm water wells up in the center of the Pacific. Eventually the warm water crashes into the west coast of South America, around Ecuador. From there, it drifts north along the West Coast until it is off the coast of California. Warmth shifts north in the West and winds carry it inland. Meanwhile, the Pacific jetstream is shifted north and the southern tier of states wallow in water. (Good news for Texas!)
Click to expand. El Niños bring warmer weather north and cooler weather south. SOURCE: NOAA.
El Niños normally make the northern states and Canada warmer and the southern states and Mexico wetter. Confusing, isn’t it!
Unfortunately, for my Ohio readers, parts of the Midwest have less snow, which means things stay dry.
Of course, El Niño isn’t the only pattern that shapes winter. If an Arctic Oscillation is in a negative mood, it will be cold. The Arctic Oscillation is the king of winter, and a “little boy” cannot fight a king.
So, if you love shoveling snow off your sidewalks, this winter may disappoint you. If you like cool but not frigid weather, El Niño may be your best friend.
James J. Garriss
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Laughs. Idk what this el stuff dose but acorns and pine cones are dropping which means cold and snowy in north east indiana and Michigan(which I still think is stupid the indiana, Michigan and Ohio are part of Midwest) and its not unusual come January to have 15 below up here and snow freeze over yes snow is frozen water can freeze again. In January we beg up here for anything not in negtives. Admit last yr was warmer then usual clearly by temps and nature it wont be long before brr and snow. But the heat explains why no black cherries from Michigan this yr had to settle for Northwest cherries they aren't as good
So when would know for sure if El Nino is in effective and if the NAO is negative?
I asked my uncle "so what do you think this winter will be like with an el nino" and he said "if theres one thing ive learned about an el nino winter is that you just dont ever know what that little boy is up to, we may be a bit mild in the winter then we have a nasty March snowstorm or we may end up getting a stormy cold December then you get tricked with the rest of the winter warming up a bit" in his 45 years of studying the weather, el nino plays pranks on us so... who knows! but he said even if el nino does argue for a mild winter, it will be pleasant. We will still have a winter but we wont shiver to death like we did the last few. That is what i like, mild. Not a record warm winter but a winter where we dont have to leave the heat on but so often! a fair share of snow and cold in the mix
Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!
Its all I've got. I don't pretend to understand weather patterns so I really can't discuss them or comment on them. I just really miss seeing snow.
Like you, I love seeing snow. Now, driving in the white stuff, that is a different story.
I also believe this winter should be more of a winter than last. We desperately need that colder winter. Bugs are terrible this year. Will a positive NAO still do us good this winter? I dont want it frigid but atleast colder than last year! When is el nino coming? The midwest needs more moisture. Those snowy winter skies to recover the drought over the winter. We do need that winter in the east and midwest!!
Even if it wasn't strongly negative, it would certainly kill a lot of the insects. Frequently El Ninos bring warm, relatively dry winters but it also usually brings lovely wet springtime in the Midwest.
Even if it wasn't strongly negative, it would certainly kill a lot of the insects. Frequently El Ninos bring warm, relatively dry winters but it also usually brings lovely wet springtime in the Midwest.
I think here in Texas we are probably gonna have a very cool September with an early frost or freeze coming in early October. I also think it will be rainy all the way from Oct through May with a major risk of severe weather from Late October through Early December followed by a major cold spell in January. I dont think we will see much snow, but freezing rain and ice might be in the offing especially early December and Mid to Late Jan and mid feb.
That sounds like a pleasant change from the current heat and dry weather.
