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steinbergmichael (not verified)

13 years 8 months ago

Will the impact of the giant event in Japan affect or alter weather?

The short answer is "No".

The more complete answer is:

Many events change Earth's axis, rotation and geography by small to minuscule amounts. The "butterfly effect" metaphor illustrates the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions that is part of chaos theory - the concept being that even a tiny change at one place in a complex system can lead to large changes over time.

And so, we can't completely rule out that the changes to the Earth from the earthquake and tsunami will significantly alter the weather or even the climate.

I can even postulate a mechanism whereby this might happen. Since the main island of Japan has shifted 2.4 meters and there are various changes in the sea floor, it is not impossible that this could shift the prevailing marine currents, which could result in an alteration of the prevailing atmospheric patterns, resulting in a change in both the weather and the climate. As these patterns in one part of the world change, they would alter the patterns in other parts of the world. And so, it is not impossible that this would result in a significant change in global climate.

However, every day there are billions or trillions of butterfly wing flaps, not to mention all the other localized occurrences (like my getting my mail or opening and closing my car door). Each of the trillions of trillions of trillions of tiny events that happen every day has the potential to amplify and, through the "butterfly effect", change the earth's weather or even its climate. But, ALMOST without exception, they don't.

And while the construction of a building certainly alters the local weather in some way (even if only to change the wind so it blows around the building rather than through it), it ALMOST never changes the earth's climate.

So, can I state unequivocally that the events in Japan won't change the earth's weather and climate, potentially even to the point of bringing on a new ice age? No, I can't say that.

But I can say that while it's not impossible, the odds of it having any noticeable effect are so low that the short answer is "No".

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