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Hi, Darla: Thank you for such detail and concern. This is a great question, for which we  have no answer. Insight, though—perhaps we can lend. The answer to any question about fishing derby ice thickness depends on many things: shady spots, shallow spots, currents and/or springs, concentration of holes, etc. Feel free to take under advisement the table above—regarding ice thickness. We can tell you that here in New Hampshire, we have postponed more than one derby in the name of extreme caution, which you quite correctly sense is important. OK, so that’s our nonanswer. Here’s the insight: Go to the local tackle shop and/or find the oldest/most experienced ice fisher you can—and then combine their advice with this chart. Thanks again, and be safe! Oh: And good luck to your anglers, whenever they fish!

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