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Boy, that’s a big one alright! 

It sounds like your analysis could be correct: the plant is likely getting too much water and its roots may be rotting. Unfortunately, with a plant so huge, there’s not a whole lot that you can do, aside from hoping for drier weather.

To confirm your theory, take a look around the base of the plant, poking gently with your foot to see if you can find any obvious soft spots. These would be a sign of rot and too much water in the soil. If you can’t see anything aboveground, gently dig down (no deeper than 1ft) around the base of the plant in a few different spots to see if you can find any rot belowground. If you can’t find any signs of rot there either, the problem is probably deep within the roots of the plant. 

There’s not much you can do for the plant at this point, unfortunately, but ponytail palms are fairly hardy. If it gets a chance to dry out, the plant should recover!

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