I promised several readers last week that I would write about winter.
There is nothing like a heat wave to make you dream of crisp cool winter days and quiet drifts of snow. (Ok, Californians, I know you dream of 72˚ weather and enough rain that you don’t have to water the still blossoming garden.)
If, as most climate experts expect, we have an El Niño, winter might be a bit weird.
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Click to expand. Satellite pictures show how El Niños develop. SOURCE: NOAA.
Basically, an El Niño (Spanish for “Little Boy) occurs when the Tropical Pacific is unusually warm, more than 0.5˚C or 0.9˚F hotter than average. It heats the air above it, which allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Air pressure changes and that changes wind patterns. The unusual warmth lasts for months. Since the warm area is hundreds of thousands of square miles in size, it usually changes weather around the Pacific Rim and throughout the tropics.
El Niños move. The warmer water drifts east, while new warm water wells up in the center of the Pacific. Eventually the warm water crashes into the west coast of South America, around Ecuador. From there, it drifts north along the West Coast until it is off the coast of California. Warmth shifts north in the West and winds carry it inland. Meanwhile, the Pacific jetstream is shifted north and the southern tier of states wallow in water. (Good news for Texas!)
Click to expand. El Niños bring warmer weather north and cooler weather south. SOURCE: NOAA.
El Niños normally make the northern states and Canada warmer and the southern states and Mexico wetter. Confusing, isn’t it!
Unfortunately, for my Ohio readers, parts of the Midwest have less snow, which means things stay dry.
Of course, El Niño isn’t the only pattern that shapes winter. If an Arctic Oscillation is in a negative mood, it will be cold. The Arctic Oscillation is the king of winter, and a “little boy” cannot fight a king.
So, if you love shoveling snow off your sidewalks, this winter may disappoint you. If you like cool but not frigid weather, El Niño may be your best friend.
James J. Garriss
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I have noticed the trees where I live, too! In east TN the trees will give larger fruit if the winter is colder and/or more snowfall. Also, I noticed that many of the trees will bear their fruit and drop it early if the winter weather will come earlier!
As a person who was a child in Buffalo NY, I know about lake effect snow and how it can change the weather.
I never heard of the Mountain Ash weather lore. It will be interesting to see if it works.
Really!?! I live in MI and last years wasn't terrible, but I LOVE to ski! I bought new skies and want to use them! Last year, on my birthday (March 20) we were skiing in upper 70 degree weather! It was cool in a way, but I WANT SOME SNOW! ;-)
The holiday season doesn't start for me unless we get a few snowflakes on Thanksgiving and yes, I'd like a white Christmas just as log as it snows a bit Christmas Eve and melts on the 26th. While I don't mind snow ice, wind and freezing temps I can do without.
I love reading your blog!! You just explain everything in such a simple way. Hopefully we will get a break in south texas and northern Mexico from the scorching heat of this summer.
Thank you.
Usually the New Mexico/Texas/Northern Mexico areas get hit with lovely cool temperatures. Sometimes El Ninos even cause it to snow in El Paso.
Thank you for explaining things so easily, my daughter is excited to show your explanation of El Nino to her class. And we are really hoping for snow here in El Paso!!
HOPE we get some moisture in the ground this winter. I realize everyone hates snow but we NEED it.
Have all of the snow that you want, just keep it out of the South. We hate snow like the Devil hates Holy Water.
I'm with u on that. I live in SC. Last winter was not that bad. I dread to see fall and winter come. I don't even like to go outside when its cold. But when u got cows a bellerin for hay, u got to pull out the coveralls, insulated boots, etc. By the time I get dressed I'm to tired to even get the cows fed. I hope El Nino throws us some warmer temps this winter although it sounds as if it makes us colder. With all the weird weather lately, maybe it will get confused too, and warm us up.
