I promised several readers last week that I would write about winter.
There is nothing like a heat wave to make you dream of crisp cool winter days and quiet drifts of snow. (Ok, Californians, I know you dream of 72˚ weather and enough rain that you don’t have to water the still blossoming garden.)
If, as most climate experts expect, we have an El Niño, winter might be a bit weird.
Read Next
Click to expand. Satellite pictures show how El Niños develop. SOURCE: NOAA.
Basically, an El Niño (Spanish for “Little Boy) occurs when the Tropical Pacific is unusually warm, more than 0.5˚C or 0.9˚F hotter than average. It heats the air above it, which allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Air pressure changes and that changes wind patterns. The unusual warmth lasts for months. Since the warm area is hundreds of thousands of square miles in size, it usually changes weather around the Pacific Rim and throughout the tropics.
El Niños move. The warmer water drifts east, while new warm water wells up in the center of the Pacific. Eventually the warm water crashes into the west coast of South America, around Ecuador. From there, it drifts north along the West Coast until it is off the coast of California. Warmth shifts north in the West and winds carry it inland. Meanwhile, the Pacific jetstream is shifted north and the southern tier of states wallow in water. (Good news for Texas!)
Click to expand. El Niños bring warmer weather north and cooler weather south. SOURCE: NOAA.
El Niños normally make the northern states and Canada warmer and the southern states and Mexico wetter. Confusing, isn’t it!
Unfortunately, for my Ohio readers, parts of the Midwest have less snow, which means things stay dry.
Of course, El Niño isn’t the only pattern that shapes winter. If an Arctic Oscillation is in a negative mood, it will be cold. The Arctic Oscillation is the king of winter, and a “little boy” cannot fight a king.
So, if you love shoveling snow off your sidewalks, this winter may disappoint you. If you like cool but not frigid weather, El Niño may be your best friend.
James J. Garriss
ADVERTISEMENT
I HATE SNOW. I live in Northeastern West Virginia, so we get a lot of snow. Many years, Preston County tops Buffalo, NY. Snow wouldn't be too bad, except driving on Mountain Roads that aren't maintained or cleared. Sliding and getting stuck in ditches is NO fun.
Are you sure these above average temperatures can go away? 7 month streak of record warmth in 2012, is there any reason to believe we will stop there? I wouldnt be surprised if this winter would be warmer than last winter due to the fact to this year being so warm, i just cant count on us going back to normal anymore. Is it possible we could have heard the last of the record heat? August has been cooler and rainier in the midwest and east. Im noticing much less heat but i dont know.. August will some how find a way to be the 8th month of record breaking heat, can things still change between now and winter? Will el nino flip things around a bit? Please say yes! I want this year to return to more normal weather
Like you, I would like more normal weather. It might take a while with the Atlantic waters being so warm and the Gulf Stream flowing so fast. Sorry!
This reminds me of a wisdom that I saw on Sun-gazing.com. The picture is of a 1940's era where a mother and daughter are sitting together and knitting. The little girls asks, "Mom.....what is Normal?" To which the mother replies, " It's just a setting on the Dryer, honey."
I think when we finally give up trying to control and quantify everything in our material environment we will come to embrace change.....and Polar Shifts...as catalysts for emotional, mental and spiritual growth.
We can only hope.......
Why does everyone ignore the current magnetic shift of the Poles??? Or the Intense solar radiation bombarding Earth right now due to the diminishing Magnetosphere??? Surely these are related to the current weather patterns?
I don't think people are really intentionally ignoring this topic. You may want to search on Space .
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Do these phenomena impact our weather/climate, yes they do. The question lies in how much and will Ground (instead of Space) people be able to measure it and then be able to connect the dots.
Keep in mind that Modern /Climate science as we know it today is a new field (Vanguard 2 launched in 1959, not a success, TIROS 1 launched in 1960 and worked for 78 days). Sun (Sol) research is even newer with the advent of the SOHO project, which launced in 1995.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/home.html
Then throw in the new research that suggests cold temperatures aids in the destruction of stratospheric ozone and that warm temperatures actually help increase ozone concentration. The key is temperature based cloud formation and subsequent activation of chlorine.
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/seminars/000714FO.html
Just when we thought we had things all figured out and knew everything, Mother Nature threw us a curve ball. A great thing for curious people but a bad thing for people in the Midwest with brand new cross-country skis that will most likely go unused for ANOTHER season.
That would be interesting to write about. There is some science that relates the shifting magnetic poles to changes in the weather, but it is a very l-o-n-g weather cycle.
I will write about it in a few weeks when I have a chance to reread the science again.
That's all I think about. I predicted that we will actually miss winter with kind of a Monty Python thing going from Summer to Spring, then from Spring to Summer again, and from Summer directly to winter, which will last for a while, then give way to spring again.
Yeah, well live in Arkansas a while. You never know what the weather will be. We have a saying, "If you don't like the weather, wait five minutes; it will change." I have literally seen it sunny and 90 degrees at 9 the morning in December, and snowing by 3 in the afternoon. We never get snow and have to completely shut down everything if we get two inches of ice because no one knows how to drive in it. People live without power for weeks! I hope it stays warm all winter, but we sure need rain all year long.
I live in a persistent squall area, right off of Lake Ontario. Last winter was great- didn't have to have the driveway plowed once! I pay attention to the fruit cover of the Mountain Ash tree- heavy with orange berries means lots of snow in winter. This year, the fruit on the tree does not even bend the branches, so I am not expecting much snow.
Of course, lake effect can always change that.
