I promised several readers last week that I would write about winter.
There is nothing like a heat wave to make you dream of crisp cool winter days and quiet drifts of snow. (Ok, Californians, I know you dream of 72˚ weather and enough rain that you don’t have to water the still blossoming garden.)
If, as most climate experts expect, we have an El Niño, winter might be a bit weird.
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Click to expand. Satellite pictures show how El Niños develop. SOURCE: NOAA.
Basically, an El Niño (Spanish for “Little Boy) occurs when the Tropical Pacific is unusually warm, more than 0.5˚C or 0.9˚F hotter than average. It heats the air above it, which allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Air pressure changes and that changes wind patterns. The unusual warmth lasts for months. Since the warm area is hundreds of thousands of square miles in size, it usually changes weather around the Pacific Rim and throughout the tropics.
El Niños move. The warmer water drifts east, while new warm water wells up in the center of the Pacific. Eventually the warm water crashes into the west coast of South America, around Ecuador. From there, it drifts north along the West Coast until it is off the coast of California. Warmth shifts north in the West and winds carry it inland. Meanwhile, the Pacific jetstream is shifted north and the southern tier of states wallow in water. (Good news for Texas!)
Click to expand. El Niños bring warmer weather north and cooler weather south. SOURCE: NOAA.
El Niños normally make the northern states and Canada warmer and the southern states and Mexico wetter. Confusing, isn’t it!
Unfortunately, for my Ohio readers, parts of the Midwest have less snow, which means things stay dry.
Of course, El Niño isn’t the only pattern that shapes winter. If an Arctic Oscillation is in a negative mood, it will be cold. The Arctic Oscillation is the king of winter, and a “little boy” cannot fight a king.
So, if you love shoveling snow off your sidewalks, this winter may disappoint you. If you like cool but not frigid weather, El Niño may be your best friend.
James J. Garriss
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Normally El Ninos bring cooler and wetter winters to the South. You may be in luck.
Ok, so if last winter was dominated by a very strongly positive NAO that lasted the whole season. Does that mean that even if we do have a positive NAO that it will be less strongly positive? Meaning this winter will be more of a winter. Can we still get cold weather and snow with a positive NAO?
Last winter's NAO was record-breaking for how strongly positive it was and how long it lasted. Most years have the NAO go from positive to negative and back again. Most positive NAO winters have occasional spells of a negative or neutral NAO with a flurry of cold or cool weather.
Iwill take 70 degrees in december january and february and march over a normal winter anytime place you all acan have the snow and cold justgive me 60 degrees at least all yr long
You sound like you need to be in Northern California. Some of those cities, like Eureka have mellow weather close to 60 degrees all year.
I have lived in Northern Ca. all my life. I want to enlighten the rest of the U.S. to the fact we have unpredictable weather here too. Always have in my 42 years...
Early frost causing fruit trees to drop, rained for six weeks solid a couple years ago. Last year hardly a drop. It even snows from time to time up here, though not usually enough to stick for more than a day or two. Summer's hotter & longer lately...
We all share this planet and mother nature 's moods. I think she 's a little angry at us for taking her wealth for granted. She's teaching us who 's boss. All will change again. Like the wise Ms. Browning said, most climate shifts that people are fearful of are long patterns. And I believe that leaves plenty of room for change.
Thank you, Penny13! We as humans can do our best to understand all of the factors that influence weather around the globe, but we will never fully understand "mother nature," so to speak. That's why great people like Evelyn spend their entire lives studying climate and weather so that it may be better predicted-just as in life, there is no guarantee with weather. Perhaps we as humans are meant to come up with alternative ways of sustaining our existence by using all the knowledge we have to find other methods of growing crops. Ban together and formulate new ways to feed our countries instead of separately suffering. Here in VT, I can see the change of seasons already-the first reds are peeking through a sea of green tree tops. Just a couple trees here and there. The sun still blazes and the humidity is unsurpassed to the VA summers I remember growing up-but fear not; for anyone in the NE, we have just been granted an extra length of growing opportunity-I hope we all can take advantage of that.
Thank you for your generous words.
Like you, I hope we can use the increased science of weather and climate to increase healthy food production.
Coming from a long line of farmers, I know how crucial a hard freeze is to agriculture. As a child, I hardly recall a single Christmas without snow, but it began to change in the '70's. Now we never know, and a white Christmas is a real treat. We're at the bottom of the Midwest, in Kentucky. And yes, the insects were terrible this year. I hate 90-100 degree weather in the Summer, but I can deal with it as long as it's balanced by a good, solid, frigid Winter stretch. I love the change of seasons, it's magickal!
There is a long-term cycle, called the PDO that changed in the 1970s, and it really changed a lot of winter patterns. Some experts are claiming that it has changed back and will be bringing back some of that old fashioned weather.
If the experts are right, then white Christmas may become more common again.
