I promised several readers last week that I would write about winter.
There is nothing like a heat wave to make you dream of crisp cool winter days and quiet drifts of snow. (Ok, Californians, I know you dream of 72˚ weather and enough rain that you don’t have to water the still blossoming garden.)
If, as most climate experts expect, we have an El Niño, winter might be a bit weird.
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Click to expand. Satellite pictures show how El Niños develop. SOURCE: NOAA.
Basically, an El Niño (Spanish for “Little Boy) occurs when the Tropical Pacific is unusually warm, more than 0.5˚C or 0.9˚F hotter than average. It heats the air above it, which allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Air pressure changes and that changes wind patterns. The unusual warmth lasts for months. Since the warm area is hundreds of thousands of square miles in size, it usually changes weather around the Pacific Rim and throughout the tropics.
El Niños move. The warmer water drifts east, while new warm water wells up in the center of the Pacific. Eventually the warm water crashes into the west coast of South America, around Ecuador. From there, it drifts north along the West Coast until it is off the coast of California. Warmth shifts north in the West and winds carry it inland. Meanwhile, the Pacific jetstream is shifted north and the southern tier of states wallow in water. (Good news for Texas!)
Click to expand. El Niños bring warmer weather north and cooler weather south. SOURCE: NOAA.
El Niños normally make the northern states and Canada warmer and the southern states and Mexico wetter. Confusing, isn’t it!
Unfortunately, for my Ohio readers, parts of the Midwest have less snow, which means things stay dry.
Of course, El Niño isn’t the only pattern that shapes winter. If an Arctic Oscillation is in a negative mood, it will be cold. The Arctic Oscillation is the king of winter, and a “little boy” cannot fight a king.
So, if you love shoveling snow off your sidewalks, this winter may disappoint you. If you like cool but not frigid weather, El Niño may be your best friend.
James J. Garriss
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I live in SW OK I can't remember the last BIG snow we had. Will this winter be different?
From everything I have read, regarding the earth's past, and now it's present, the earth takes care of itself. We should embrace all the changes that are happening with our weather, as these changes are probably happening to preserve our planet earth. Man has survived all types of weather in the earth's history. Mother Earth seems to know what she is doing. Isn't it just like a Mother to clean up after the kid's messes, and make everything nice and organized again? Patience. This is a very big planet to clean up, and a lot of messes that have affected our weather.
I love your perspective. Our ancestors survived weather much tougher than this, and they didn't even have air conditioners.
Very good analogy, Penny! Enjoyed reading your perspective.
A few years back in the newsletter I had read a weather saying that the first fog in August was an indicator of when the first frost would come in September. Well, if this holds, Michigan should see a very early frost this year. Not that I am complaining, mind you, but we have struggled to get out of the 60's for the past week.
As for this winter, I will take anything as long as it is not like the last one. With 75-90% of our fruit crops lost, who wants to see a repeat of that. March temps of 70F are not cause for celebration. The rest of winter had above normal temps and below normal precipitation; that was a stressor for crops too.
Oh no -- I lost our cherry crop here and can sympathize.
Most El Ninos bring a double dip winter to your part of the country -- cool early and late winter, but warmer during mid-winter. Insects get killed but sometimes spring storms hurt fruit blossoms.
Will fall get here soon? our meteorologists told us that the jet stream and NAO wont act the same this fall like it did last year which means us having another record warm winter are very very little becuase should still be neutral or even negative at times this fall and winter. That is music to my ears! El Nino usually supplies more moisture in the mid atlantic area and when the moisture clashes with a shot of cold air... BAM! winter is here. Bye Bye summer! go away so i can turn off my AC! My air bill was high enough this summer
I feel the air bill pain!
He sounds right about the NAO. An El Nino may give you a warm winter if you are in the northern states or Canada, but not as warm as last winter's record positive NAO.
I feel the air bill pain!
He sounds right about the NAO. An El Nino may give you a warm winter if you are in the northern states or Canada, but not as warm as last winter's record positive NAO.
I feel the air bill pain!
He sounds right about the NAO. An El Nino may give you a warm winter if you are in the northern states or Canada, but not as warm as last winter's record positive NAO.
