Here’s the news – La Niñ²¹, that cool pool of water in the Tropical Pacific, is back.
It’s baaaack! La Niñ²¹ has returned to the Pacific. Source: NOAA
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Here’s the question: Is that good or bad news?
Here’s the answer: It’s good news for the East Coast and not for Texas. It’s great news for a mellow autumn and rough news for mid-winter cold. It’s good news for retailers and ski resorts, it’s bad news for Christmas air travel. In short, it is a mixed bag of weather.
In the second week of September, the water in the Tropical Pacific became 0.9ËšF (0.5ËšC) colder than normal. This was low enough that the US weather service officially announced that a new La Niñ²¹ had begun. Over a million square miles of ocean water were cooling the air above it, making the air dry and cold. This changed the air pressure, which changes wind patterns and weather. When such a huge amount of air is changed, it changes weather all around the globe.
Some of the weather changes were great. In general, La Niñ²¹s produce warmer and drier autumns, allowing some of those Midwestern crops that were planted late during the spring floods enough time to ripen. This will help the price of food. Unfortunately, the La Nina will also dry conditions in Texas, which could really use some rain.
La Niñ²¹ also tend to shift the wind and air pressure patterns that steer Atlantic hurricanes. Since the event began in September, hurricanes have been shooting up the Atlantic Ocean, rather than skimming the East Coast, like Hurricane Irene. Storms in the Caribbean have gone due east rather than veering north into the Gulf Coast, like Tropical Storm Lee.
La Niñ²¹s frequently create global wind patterns that tend to steer Atlantic hurricanes away from US shores. Source: NOAA
La Niñ²¹s also tend to better the odds for cool, snowy mid-winters. This may make Christmas air traffic a mess, but it is the answer to skier’s prayers. This tends to increase midwinter clothing sales, a gift to retailers. And it provides a pretty, white Christmas.
Just remember this Christmas, as you watch the snowflakes fall—it all started with some cool water in the middle of the vast Pacific.
James J. Garriss
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Hi. I live in the northeast near Binghamton, NY which is in upstate New York and I heard we're suppose to have a very bad winter. I also heard that we're suppose to have another flood worse than the one over a month ago when Tropical Storm Lee hit us. Is that true? Please let me know.
I'm sorry to say that it does look like your region is in for some flooding, as well as a cold winter. Here's the big picture of what is happening:
The winds around the Arctic trap the cold polar air mass. They are currently weakening, which is allowing that cold air to surge in your direction. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is VERY warm for this time of year. When icy air crashes into warm wet air, you get flooding rainfall and/or heavy snows.
There is a lot going on in the circumpolar winds, so it looks like a lot of polar air will be blasting us this winter.
Do this mean it will be cooler and drier in the southern coastal states? I live in Tampa, FL and am concerned about all my new plants.
I took oceanography in college, but promptly forgot everything I learned by the next semester.
Unfortunately, it usually means a drier winter in the South.
Normally it would also mean a warmer winter as well. However, there are some events going on in the Atlantic that may bring some cold weather south, just like last year.
Let's hope the La Nina warmth beats out the Atlantic forces.
La Nina has back return but I don't think it is not so good news for pacific land. It is really very affected on the water. Tropical pacific become 0.9 F colder than normal so I think it is not good for our land and our earth. So we should stop this La Nina.
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bud126, this is mostly a natural occurrence.
